{"calculation_version":"heat-pump-climate/1.0","caveats":["These are modeled scenario results, not observed reductions from installed heat pumps.","Full adoption is a counterfactual scenario; it does not describe current market penetration.","Manufacturer shipments cannot be multiplied by the per-dwelling range because shipments include inventory, commercial equipment and multiple units serving one home.","The range changes with equipment performance, building shell, displaced fuel and the modeled electric grid."],"dataset_version":"nrel-heat-pump-climate-9a65970a9f660a86","findings":[{"metric":"annual_ghg_savings_per_dwelling","paper_location":"Results, page 1003","scope":"Full, immediate residential air-source heat-pump adoption; average savings levelized over the modeled 16-year equipment life","unit":"metric tons CO2e per dwelling per year","value_high":4.4,"value_low":2.5},{"metric":"annual_us_residential_ghg_savings","paper_location":"Results, page 1003","scope":"Full, immediate residential air-source heat-pump adoption","unit":"million metric tons CO2e per year","value_high":590.0,"value_low":330.0},{"metric":"economy_wide_ghg_reduction","paper_location":"Results, page 1003","scope":"Full, immediate residential air-source heat-pump adoption","unit":"percent of U.S. economy-wide emissions","value_high":9.0,"value_low":5.0},{"metric":"residential_sector_ghg_reduction","paper_location":"Results, page 1003","scope":"Full, immediate residential air-source heat-pump adoption","unit":"percent of 2020 U.S. residential-sector emissions","value_high":64.0,"value_low":36.0}],"model":{"equipment_lifetime_years":16,"grid_scenario_end":2038,"grid_scenario_start":2022,"heat_pump_scenarios":6,"represented_dwelling_units":113000000,"simulated_dwelling_units":550000},"qualitative_findings":["Average annual greenhouse-gas savings were positive in every state and every heat-pump and grid scenario studied.","Savings were highest when heat pumps replaced fuel-oil systems and lowest when they replaced heating that was already electric.","Per-household greenhouse-gas savings were generally larger in colder climates.","The study modeled operating energy and associated emissions; it was not a count of installations or a measurement of reductions already achieved."],"reviewed_on":"2026-09-23","source":{"data_doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10442896","license":"CC BY 4.0 for the archived results dataset","publisher":"National Renewable Energy Laboratory","study":"NREL Heat Pumps for All","study_doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2024.01.022","study_url":"https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy24osti/84775.pdf"},"status":"reviewed_research_extract"}